Impact of the e-cigarette era on cigarette smoking among youth in the United States
Harrell MB, Mantey DS, Chen B, et al. Impact of the e-cigarette era on cigarette smoking among youth in the United States: A population-level study. Prev Med. Online Ahead of Print. 2022 Sep 22; 164:107265. 1.7 million more US adolescents started smoking above historical trends after e-cigarettes became widely used in the US. Using National Youth Tobacco Survey (NYTS) data from 2002 to 2019, authors modeled the prevalence of past 30-day cigarette smoking over time. They conclude that “the onset of the “e-cigarette era” in 2014 corresponded to over 1.66 million (95% CI: 1.57 m – 1.75 m) more past 30-day cigarette smokers from 2015 to 2019, cumulatively. The rate of decline in the past 30-day cigarette smoking prevalence among adolescents observed since 2002 slowed with the onset of the “e-cigarette era” in 2014, providing evidence at a population level for the “gateway effect.”
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36152819/
Comment: The difference between the pre-2014 trend (slow decline of smoking) and what happened amounted to 1.66 million extra middle and high school smokers from 2015 to 2019 in the US.
Stephen Hamann
