US simulation shows banning menthol in nicotine products will save lives
Levy DT, Meza R, Yuan Z, et al. Public health impact of a US ban on menthol in cigarettes and cigars: a simulation study.Tobacco Control Published Online First: 02 September 2021.
https://tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/content/early/2021/09/02/tobaccocontrol-2021-056604
After calibrating an established US simulation model to reflect recent use trends in cigarette and nicotine vaping product (NVP) use, we extended the model to incorporate menthol and non-menthol cigarette use under a status quo scenario….we developed a menthol ban scenario with the ban starting in 2021. We estimated the public health impact as the difference between smoking and vaping-attributable deaths and life-years lost in the status quo scenario and the menthol ban scenario from 2021 to 2060.”
“As a result of the [simulation model] ban, overall smoking was estimated to decline by 15% as early as 2026 due to menthol smokers quitting both NVP and combustible use or switching to NVPs. These transitions are projected to reduce cumulative smoking and vaping-attributable deaths from 2021 to 2060 by 5% (650 000 in total) and reduce life-years lost by 8.8% (11.3 million). Sensitivity analyses showed appreciable public health benefits across different parameter specifications.”
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Stephen Hamann
