Tobacco control measures cut prevalence in Taiwan, but more may be needed
Sanna M, et al. Tobacco control within and beyond WHO MPOWER: outcomes from Taiwan SimSmoke. Tobacco Control. 2019. https://tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/content/early/2019/12/13/tobaccocontrol-2018-054544
“SimSmoke (a tobacco control simulation model) estimates that tobacco control in Taiwan has been able to reduce smoking prevalence by 30% in 2015 with 450 000 fewer smoking-attributable deaths by 2060. Modified scenarios show that doubling the retail price of cigarettes and fully implementing the remaining MPOWER measures would avert approximately 45 000 lives by 2040 and 130 000 by 2060.” However, “the MPOWER package, even if adopted at the highest level with a large tax increase, is unlikely to reduce smoking prevalence to the endgame goal of 5% in the next five decades.”
This study shows how known measures for reducing demand can cut tobacco use but may be insufficient without supply side measures to bring the smoking prevalence to the ‘endgame’ goal of 5% or less.
by Dr.Stephen Hamann
